Global oil prices could surge to as high as $150 per barrel if tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate, according to a new analysis by energy research firm Rystad Energy. The company warned that growing instability in the Gulf region is increasing concerns about disruptions to global oil supplies and putting pressure on financial markets worldwide.
Rystad Energy said the latest developments have pushed the fragile ceasefire period into a critical stage. Oil markets reacted quickly, with Brent crude briefly rising to around $94.5 per barrel before easing slightly. The uncertainty has also affected global investor confidence, particularly in US stock markets.
Jorge Leon, Senior Vice President and Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, said it remains too early to determine whether the current situation will develop into a full-scale conflict or remain a serious but manageable crisis. However, he noted that market volatility is expected to continue as investors closely monitor developments in the region.
The report highlighted several factors that could help limit the immediate impact of supply disruptions, including strategic petroleum reserve releases, lower oil imports by China, and alternative export routes that allow crude shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz through Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port.
According to Leon, hopes for a short-term diplomatic agreement have weakened significantly in recent weeks. He stressed that the coming days will be crucial in determining whether diplomatic efforts can reduce tensions or whether the conflict enters a prolonged period of escalation.
Rystad Energy also warned that approximately 11.8 million barrels of oil production per day across six Gulf countries have been affected by disruptions, describing the situation as one of the most serious supply shocks in modern oil market history.
The report further stated that nearly one billion barrels of oil have been removed from global markets over the past three months, increasing concerns about long-term price volatility. Analysts believe oil markets could remain unstable until a clearer geopolitical solution emerges and regional tensions begin to ease.
